New data about the danger of covid-19

New data about the danger of COVID-19

Image: NIAID / CC BY-2.0

Metaanalysis shows that COVID-19 is also dangerous for persons in the middle age and that almost 90% of the differences in the lethality depend on the age-related composition of the population

In my last article in Telepolis from 8.9.In 2020, I have compiled important facts about the dureness of Covid-19 as a basis for a rational handling of the Coronavirus pandemic (much more danger than the seasonal flu and the deadline for alter men). I have pledged that Covid-19 is much of dangerously than the seasonal flu and especially for old manners.

After the pandemic has held the world in breath for nine months, two new works have been published at the end of September 2020 at the end of September 2020, which should be taken note of the interested publicity and political advisers and that I would like to imagine briefly.

So far, more than one million people in connection with Covid-19 died

One thing is an article from the prestigious science magazine "Nature", in which it is reported that the official worldwide number of death victims, which died in connection with Covid-19, has meanwhile exceeded one million. The researchers warn that this number probably attributed the actual number of death victims by far.

In reality, it is probably the case that this number "has been exceeded some time ago", Says Andrea Gemez Ayora, Epidemiologist at the University of Chile in Santiago. Many death trap associated with the coronavirus had not been reported, she says, especially in countries where tests are not widespread. The number will continue to rise, as the diagnostic capacity is expanded worldwide.

"We had many of these death trap can be avoided", says Ali Mokdad, epidemiologist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington in Seattle. He resigns that in the US, with more than 200.000 The highest number of deaths at national level, for example, had contributed a nationwide law to carry facial masks in the public to significantly reduce the transfer rates of SARS-COV-2.

On the basis of the official data on COVID-19 from different countries, the researchers of the IHME estimated the global impact of the pandemic under several scenarios. So, if the current trends stop until January 2021, the total number of global death trap 2.5 million. This number could be reduced to 1.8 million if masks were worn worldwide in each country.

The model examinations of the IHME indicates that if at least 95% of the population was started within 7 days of bearing a mask, the average number of the world’s treasury death trap expected by January 2021, from the current forecast of nearly 33.300 to around 17.450 could sink.

Under other conditions, however, the situation was worsening. If the governments cancel protective measures such as social distance and assembly restrictions, the number of death victims of the pandemic continued to increase and reach 3.3 million until next January, with about 72.700 people were dying. "We are standing before a difficult time", Says Mokdad.

He added that the pandemic will also cause death trap not included in official Covid 19 statistics, due to follow-up effects that are emerging. In addition, a decline in the vaccinations of children, as people (for fear of infections) avoid clinics, also increasing alcohol consumption and increasing use of illegal drugs as well as increased mortality due to other diseases due to surplused health systems.

Other researchers hope that the high number of previous deaths, which has crossed the 1 million mark, a turning point in the course of the pandemic. "I hope that the idea of a million victims of the pandemic could probably be a kind of wake-up call," Says Naomi Rogers, a medical historian at the Yale University in New Haven.

New Review article and meta analysis to the lettatat of COVID-19

The second work is a preprint that is on 24. September 2020 was published. It is an extensive systematic review and a meta-analysis of researchers of different disciplines, which include ebonians, health scientists and immunologists in addition to epidemiologists, health scientists and immunologists. It is about the determination of age-specific infected mortality rates (IFRS) for Covid-19 to inform the health policy and the openness of protection-exercised ages.

In the introduction of this work, it is found that the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), the case mortality rate, D. H. the ratio of the death trap to the number of trap tested positively with the PCR test, often used to assess the lethality as an objective parameter of the severity of the disease. However, this approach may result in a misconduct in SARS COV-2, the virus, COVID-19, as a high proportion of infections, especially for young people, asymptomatic or only slightly symptomatic. Consequently, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the infected mortality rate, D is. H. The ratio of the death trap to the total number of infections, a reliable measuring ingredient in the evaluation of the dangers of Covid-19.

The evaluation of the IFR for Covid-19 is difficult. As an example, a current seropravalenz study of the New York Ministry of Health is caught in the work of the JUL 2020. Afterwards, 1.6 million infections with Covid-19 have been found among the 8 million inhabitants of New York City, but only about a tenth of these infections was depicted at the reported Covid-19 traps. About a quarter of the reported trap were so serious that a hospital stay was required and many of these patients died. Overall, the death trap made a tenth of the reported trap, but only a hundredth of all infections.

While the data in New York City points to an IFR of 1%, analyzes of other locations show different IFR estimates, Z. B. 0.6% in Geneva, 1.5% in England and 2.3% in Italy. In fact, a youngest meta-analysis set a high degree of heterogeneity in the population-related IFR values in various countries and regions and concluded that this research is urgently tolerated by the establishment of age-specific IFR values to better Understanding these findings to come.

The present study therefore ames the hypothesis that the observed variation in the population-related IFRS primarily reflects the age specification of Covid-19 infections and death traps. For this reason, this work is a systematic checking and meta-analysis of age-specific IFRS for Covid-19.

For this purpose, in this coast meta analysis, studies on Covid-19 pravalenenz were collected by an online search of published articles, preprints and government reports. A total of 1145 potentially usable work were found, of which 111 studies were further processed in principle, the incurred were excluded due to the non-training of pre-defined admission criteria. Studies that had been carried out at 28 different locations and to meet the recording criteria have been selected and included in meta analysis.

Age-specific IFRS was calculated on the basis of the pravalene data in conjunction with reported death, four weeks after the middle date of the implementation of the study, whereby errors in the reporting of the death trap were excluded possible. With analytical meta regression methods, the age-specific IFRS were detected.

The age composition of the population explains 90% of the differences in the lettatat in the individual countries

The most important result is that in meta analysis an exponential relationship between age and IFR for Covid-19 finds (Figures 1 and 2).

New data about the danger of COVID-19

Log linear relationship between IFR and Age. Abscissa: age; Ordinate: Logarithm of the IFR values. Representative sample: Representative sample; Convenience Sample: Willbal Sample; Comprehensive Tracing: Comprehensive tracking (from 3, S. 12).

New data about the danger of COVID-19

Benchmark analysis of the relationship between age and IFR. Abscissa: age; Ordinate: IFR values. Representative sample: Representative sample; Convenience Sample: Willbal Sample; Comprehensive Tracing: Comprehensive tracking (from 3, S. 13).

The treasured age-specific IFRS are very low in children and young adults and gradually rise to 0.4% at the age of 55, 1.3% at the age of 65, 4.2% at the age of 75 years and 14% in old age from 85 years. The analysis shows that COVID-19 is a low risk of children and more young adults, but dangerous for adult mid-ages and extremely dangerous for old adults.

It is further noted that the differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific pravalenenz of Covid-19 explain almost 90% of the geographical scattering of the differences in the population-related IFRS in various countries.

A comparison of the age-specific IFRS from the metareegression analysis with quarry risks of today’s auto-indulgence or other forgum injuries in England and in the United States is presented in the present work in tabular form (see also Table 3, S. 9 in 3). For example, an English girl is exposed to a risky risk of death with SARS COV-2, which is more than 200 times high than the clatter risk to die with a heavy car accident.

This analysis also confirms that COVID-19 is a multi-occasion than the seasonal flu. For example, during the fluidge in the winter of 2018/19 in US population, 63 million influenza infections and 34.000 Death trap found, with an IFR from 0.05% related to the whole population. This is at least a coarse order, D. H. By a factor of 10 to 20, lower than the IFR from Covid-19, which was scated to 1% in New York (see above).

Old people, but also such middle ages are particularly danger

The results of this study also suggest that a COVID-19 IFR-related IFR should not be regarded as a solid parameter, but as a result that also reflects mails in the field of public health to include the incidence of infections to limit hazardous ages. In order to illustrate these considerations, three scenarios for the detected rising curves of infections and death traps of the last few months were examined in the USA.

A scenario goes from an infection pravalenz on a plateau of about 20% with different patterns of age-specific pravalenes. In particular, if you take a uniform pravalenence across all ages, this analysis gives that the total number of death trap in the USA this year is 500.Exceed 000. The IFR-related IFR-related IFR has been converged to about 0.8% in this case. In contrast, a scenario with relatively low incidences of new infections at hazardous age groups with less than half of the death trap and a much lower population-related IFR of 0.3%.

The metaregress results of the present work are largely agree with the groundbreaking study by Verity et al. (2020) Overin, which was carried out in a very early stage of the Covid-19 pandemic and has described an exponential pattern of age-specific IFRS, which was very low for children and much high for alter adults. The results are also in good agreement with a recent meta-analysis of population-related IFRS; In fact, the age-specific analysis explains a very high proportion of scattering in these IFRS, which was highlighted in this study.

Furthermore, in contrast, the results of this study differ significantly from those of a more earlier review article on population-related IFRS, mainly due to differences in the selection criteria.

This meta-analysis focused on the role of age in determining the IFR of Covid-19. Other factors that may have significant impact on IFR will not be considered. For example, a short-published study out of the United Kingdom has revealed that the mortality relates strongly with specific comorbiditations such as diabetes and obesity, but has not answered whether these relationships reflect differences in pravalenence or causal effects on the IFR.

It should also be noted that the analysis concentrated exclusively on the incidence of death traps, the entire spectrum of the harmful consequences of COVID-19, some of which can be severe and persistent, remains unpleasant.

In summary, the presented meta analysis shows that COVID-19 is dangerous not only for alter and frail people, but also for healthy middle-aged adults. Metardegression analysis explains nearly 90% of the geographical variation of the population-related IFRS, suggesting that they are closely related to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, measures in the field of public health for protection-exercised ages could significantly reduce the letatat.

Some conclusions

1. What the death of more than 1 million people in connection with Covid-19 is in an impressive graphic visualization of the world’s global death victims from Covid-19 compared to other causes of death from the beginning of the year to 16. September 2020 shown. The graph shows that COVID-19 has now caused more death trap than Z. B. Tuberculosis, HIV / AIDS or malaria and much more than influenza. Not listed in this graphic are cardiovascular diseases, cancer and chronic lung diseases that bought the global cause of death statistics.

2. The presented meta analysis shows that COVID-19 is a coarse danger not only for our old and very old Mitburgers, but also for the group in the middle age from the 55. to 60. Year of life is dangerable.

3. These risk groups are many million people in Germany, for the infection with the coronavirus is a serious threat.

4. Therefore, we should do everything that is possible to avoid infection with these risk groups. In addition, Z. B. compliance with the AHA rules, but also the implementation of a secure and effective vaccine as soon as it is available. This should be offered to the risk groups first.

Klaus-Dieter Kolenda, Prof. Dr. media., Specialist for internal medical gastroenterology, specialist for physical and rehabilitative medicine social medicine, was from 1985 to 2006 chief physician of a rehabilitation clinic for diseases of the cardiovascular system, the respiratory tract, the metabolism and the motion organs. He is a member of the Executive Board of the German Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research E.V. (DGNTF) and works in the Kiel Group of IPPNW E.V. (International doctors for the prevention of the nuclear war and social responsibility). Email: Klaus-Dieter.Kolenda @ GMX.de

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